Recently, the semiconductor industry has not been calm. On the one hand, it is affected by the global economic downturn, and on the other hand, due to the sharp increase in the production capacity of fabs in various countries, rumors of “oversupply” have spread like wildfire. The Economist warned The “bonus period” of IC chips is likely to enter a “big bust”. However, experts emphasized that in the second half of the year, the performance of foundry, silicon wafers and power semiconductors will be better than that of IC voice development/design, DRAM and other industries.
Is the semiconductor industry heading for bust?
TrendForce, a global market research organization, pointed out that the semiconductor industry’s “slashing orders” hit; the British media “The Economist” also stated that “After experiencing a turbo boom, IC voice chip manufacturers will fall into a super-large scale.” Has the era shattered?” To the outside world, he warned that the “development period” of the IC chip industry will come to an end.
The Economist emphasized that in 2021, the supply chain disrupted by the epidemic will be disrupted, and global IC chip factories will accelerate and expand investment in chip factories. The report emphasized that construction of 58 new factories will start from this year to 2024, and the global production capacity will increase by 40%.
Affected by inflation and wars, the demand side of the consumer market is rapidly fading. Liu Peizhen, director of the Industrial Economics Database of the Taiwan Academy of Economics, told the “Key Review Network” that the two major chip users of PC and mobile phones are rapidly cooling down, and the economy is in recession. These have led to bad semiconductors and multiple interlaced audio transmissions, which have become a major concern in the market.
Governments spend a lot of money on fabs
The Economist also pointed to political factors. At present, European and American countries and China have invested large amounts of subsidies on chip manufacturers. For example, the US CHIPS Act for America has invested 52 billion US dollars, and the European Union also wants to invest 43 billion euros in the European Chips Act. In addition, Taiwan, India, Japan, South Korea and other countries also have similar subsidy plans, which can trigger the dilemma of excess chips.
For example, STMicroelectronics and GlobalFoundries, two major chip manufacturers in Europe and the United States, will invest 5.7 billion euros (NT$172.8 billion) to build a new semiconductor factory in France recently.
French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized that the government plans to support chip manufacturing with “more than 5 billion euros (NT$151.6 billion)” as part of its “France 2030” industrial plan.
In this regard, Hideo Tanimoto, president of Japan’s Kyocera Corporation, which produces electronic products, told Nikkei Asia that the semiconductor industry needs to distinguish between advanced and mature processes. He believes that the demand for mature processes above 28nm will come to an end in the second half of 2022, but advanced processes below 10nm are still in short supply.
Voice IC solution design, DRAM still drag the semiconductor industry
Faced with the negative impacts of global inflation, the epidemic, and the war in Europe, IC chip and terminal manufacturers may lower their annual shipment targets, and voice ICs will face higher inventory and operating costs from wafer foundry to solution design. pressure.
Some people in the industry pointed out that if manufacturers are too concentrated on a single product and are affected by the weak market, the performance pressure will be greater; but with diversified product distribution and industry leadership, they can maintain strong growth, such as TSMC and Jiuqi. However, in the industry as a whole, the foundry, silicon wafers and power semiconductors will be much higher than the voice IC solution design/development, DRAM and other industries.
According to data analysis, due to the reversal of the high base period last year and the impact of the decline in the consumer market, the voice IC solution design/development part of the industry chain is currently under relatively heavy pressure; while DRAM has been sorted out in the first half of the year, the performance has not improved, and it is expected to continue in the third quarter. Weak, showing a situation of not prosperous in the peak season. It also means that the economic haze is still shrouded in inflation in the short term.